ASR Q2 Asset Allocation Survey: Positive but a change of tone
Inflation and stimulus divides panel. Implied portfolio stays Risk On:
Our cluster analysis breaks the survey panel into 3 groups: Transitory Inflation group (17% of the panel) expect inflation to be transitory and lower in 12m time, 10y bond yields to fall, equities flat; Solid Cyclical Recovery (47% of the panel) expect inflation to be persistent, expect bond yields to be higher, positive on Equities, Credit and Real Assets, like Cyclicals; Excessive Stimulus group (35% of the panel) have similar, if more extreme views to the Solid Cyclical recovery group, but are also negative on USD.
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