Economics: How risky is the global housing market?
Introducing ASR’s housing risk scorecard
While Chinese property markets have recently slowed, house prices and valuation metrics elsewhere have surged. We’ve created a housing risk scorecard to assess which countries are most vulnerable to these potential financial stability risks.
US, eurozone and (even) China’s housing risk seems muted
The US and key eurozone economies rank in the bottom-half of our housing risk scorecard. China also has a relatively low risk score, as our variables focus on homebuyers and their creditors – not developers’ leverage.
For now, housing risk may be more of a country-specific issue
Certain countries’ scores are striking, though. New Zealand is at a new high, while Norway and Canada are near record levels. Our median housing risk aggregate is still below its 2007 peak – but another 5-10 point rise could be concerning.