The 2021 Economic Outlook
2021 will obviously be a much better year than 2020.
It is likely to bring a strong recovery...but not a straightforward one.
In the near term, we could see a double-dip recession in both the US and Europe, but vaccines - soon to be rolled out, with high effectiveness rates - are game-changers.
As Service sectors open through the course of 2021, GDP should recover to 2019 peak levels earlier than we had expected.
However, there is still much to be cautious about...Fiscal policy support is likely to fade and potentially act as a drag on the US/EZ, additionally, the impact of Monetary support may also be limited. The large multi-faceted support packages afforded to corporates, have allowed them to weather the COVID storm, however, concerns remain on the scale and distribution of corporate debt levels and their sustainability should profits disappoint...