Economics Research

A detailed analysis identifying the trends that matter, incorporating the dynamics of political risk, the business cycle and other proprietary indicators.

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Economics Team

Dominic White
Head of Economics
Ben Blanchard
Michael Hessel
Political Economist
Adam Wolfe
Emerging Market Economist

Economics Research

Economics Products: Economics Monthly, Economics Weekly, Newsflow Monitor, Logistics.

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Economics Weekly - 10 key questions for 2020
14 Jan 2020
: Adam Wolfe, Ben Blanchard, Dominic White, Michael Hessel

• Which way will the global economy head in 2020?

• We maintain a more cautious outlook on global growth

• The economic risks to global risk assets are tilted to the downside

Economics Weekly - 2020 : The alternative year ahead
17 Dec 2019
: Dominic White, Ben Blanchard, Adam Wolfe, Michael Hessel

We consider four alternative scenarios to our central set of forecasts for 2020:

• Scenario 1: ‘Secular Stagnation’ becomes ‘Secular Stability’

• Scenario 2: The Phillips curve steepens and inflation returns

• Scenario 3: China’s private companies retrench and cut jobs

• Scenario 4: A seamless handover from monetary to fiscal stimulus
ASR/WSJ Newsflow Report: Newsflow and ASR Nowcasts showing similarly weak picture
10 Dec 2019
: Richard Mylles, David Bowers

Key Message: Weakness in our Newsflow indicators is to a degree a product of weak data releases, confirmed by our Nowcasts, with which they have good relationships. Global equity outperformance vs bonds suggests markets are looking through weakness in the data at present. That weakness is widespread, seen globally, in the US and in Asia. 

ASR Economic outlook for 2020 : A global recession still seems likely
3 Dec 2019
: Dominic White, Ben Blanchard, Michael Hessel, Adam Wolfe

The global economy remains in a fragile state. We still believe a recession looks likely in 2020 for four reasons:

• A fragile truce in the trade war is unlikely to trigger a growth rebound (page 4)

• Global monetary conditions remain tight, constraining economic growth (page 9)

• Emerging markets will not provide the policy impetus to save the cycle (page 16)

• US corporate leverage means recession remains our base case (page 20)
Economics Weekly - Eight charts that challenge our recession call
26 Nov 2019
: Ben Blanchard, Michael Hessel, Dominic White, Adam Wolfe

• There are some signs of growth stabilising, but final demand remains weak

• The easing of monetary policy, so far, does not look to be sufficient

• Growth has already slowed enough for unemployment to start rising

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