A detailed analysis identifying the trends that matter, incorporating the dynamics of political risk, the business cycle and other proprietary indicators.
Contact Us for a trial.
Economics ResearchEconomics Products: Economics Monthly, Economics Weekly, Newsflow Monitor, Logistics.
Page 1: Next
• The current protests spring from the failure to reform Hong Kong’s elections
• Beijing is unlikely to put the protests down by force or make electoral concessions
• China can tolerate malaise in Hong Kong, as long as its financial system functions
• The Global Composite Newsflow Indicator fell back to 45.6, a new seven-year low.
• We focus this month on the gap that has opened between the Economic and Earnings Newsflow Indices.
• The Economic Newsflow is grim – and yet the Earnings Newsflow hasn’t been derailed.
• This is the third earnings season in a row that markets have sailed through unscathed in a year where the macro has been unambiguously poor (as cross-checked by falling interest rates and policy easing).
• Politics matters to markets when it challenges economic institutions
• Identifying political & policy regimes can help generate excess investment returns
• The next regime could target environmental factors at the expense of macro ones
• Monetary conditions have not eased by enough to boost activity
• The recent pick-up in US & eurozone money supply growth looks misleading
• China still refuses to ease while other EMs have policy transmission issues
• What will the next recession look like? It’s a question we’ve had frequently in recent weeks
• The West suffers from few ‘imbalances’, suggesting a global recession could be shallow
• Yet, China’s desire to control its own imbalances has been behind the global slowdown
• China’s reluctance to stimulate could mean the recovery is slow
This research report is issued by Absolute Strategy Research Ltd, which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (“FCA”). Absolute Strategy Research Services Inc. is registered as an investment adviser with the US SEC, and is responsible for all communications and dealings with, and only with, US persons. The report is intended only for investors who are Eligible Counterparties or Professional Clients, as defined by MIFID and the FCA, and may not be distributed to Retail Clients.
Absolute Strategy Research Ltd does not solicit any action based upon this report, which is not to be construed as an invitation to buy or sell any security.
This report is not intended to provide personal investment advice and it does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any particular person who may read this report.
This research report provides general information only. The information contained was obtained from sources that we believe to be reliable but we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the original publication date appearing on this material only and the information, including the opinions contained herein, are subject to change without notice.
This research report may not be redistributed, retransmitted or disclosed in whole or in part, without the express written permission of Absolute Strategy Research Ltd.
© Absolute Strategy Research Ltd 2016. All rights reserved.
Absolute Strategy Research Ltd. 1-2 Royal Exchange Buildings, London, EC3V 3LF. Phone: +44 (0) 20 7073 0730 Fax: +44 (0) 20 7073 0732. www.absolutestrategy.com.
Absolute Strategy Research Ltd is registered in England and Wales. Company number 5727405. Registered Office: Salisbury House, Station Road, Cambridge