A detailed analysis identifying the trends that matter, incorporating the dynamics of political risk, the business cycle and other proprietary indicators.
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Economics ResearchEconomics Products: Economics Monthly, Economics Weekly, Newsflow Monitor, Logistics.
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• We think the eurozone will ultimately loosen fiscal policy as the economy weakens
• This puts it in a better position than some other regions, notably the US
• The ASR/WSJ Global Composite Newsflow Indicator (CNI) fell to 45.8 in August from 48.7 in July, its fourth consecutive monthly decline.
• The biggest mover by far was the Global Economic component which fell to 19.4 from 32.3, a 12.9-point fall, the biggest since 2000!
Key Message: The Composite Newsflow Indicator is now comfortably below 50, the threshold associated with bonds outperforming equities. But the standout reading in August was an unusually large fall in the Global Economic Newsflow component. It last hit a similar level when the world was recovering from the GFC. Both globally and in most regions, Economic Newsflow is at levels typically associated with recessions (see page 4).
• Our new ‘nowcasting’ models help track global growth developments in real time
• They currently show global growth running at its weakest rate since 2009
• The US has slowed sharply, eurozone growth has stabilised, and the UK is in recession
• The dollar has an outsized influence on EM monetary policy
• This forces EM central banks into a dollar trap
• Tight dollar liquidity conditions will weigh further on EM growth
• China’s ability to reflate its economy is also constrained by the dollar trap
• We now believe the US is likely to fall into recession next year
• A more aggressive policy response may arrive, but it will probably come too late
• We doubt the rest of the world will be able to shrug off a US recession
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