Economics Research

A detailed analysis identifying the trends that matter, incorporating the dynamics of political risk, the business cycle and other proprietary indicators.

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Economics Team

Dominic White
Head of Economics
Ben Blanchard
Michael Hessel
Political Economist
Adam Wolfe
Emerging Market Economist

Economics Research

Economics Products: Economics Monthly, Economics Weekly, Newsflow Monitor, Logistics.

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Economics Weekly - Hong Kong: containment tactics for strategic goals
5 Nov 2019
: Adam Wolfe, Dominic White, Michael Hessel, Ben Blanchard

• The current protests spring from the failure to reform Hong Kong’s elections

• Beijing is unlikely to put the protests down by force or make electoral concessions

• China can tolerate malaise in Hong Kong, as long as its financial system functions

ASR/WSJ Newsflow Report - Big Disconnect Between Economic and Earnings Newsflow
5 Nov 2019
: Richard Mylles, David Bowers, Michael Hessel

• The Global Composite Newsflow Indicator fell back to 45.6, a new seven-year low.

•  We focus this month on the gap that has opened between the Economic and Earnings Newsflow Indices.

• The Economic Newsflow is grim – and yet the Earnings Newsflow hasn’t been derailed.

• This is the third earnings season in a row that markets have sailed through unscathed in a year where the macro has been unambiguously poor (as cross-checked by falling interest rates and policy easing).

Economics monthly: How politics could rewrite the investment rules
29 Oct 2019
: Adam Wolfe, Ben Blanchard, Dominic White, Michael Hessel

• Politics matters to markets when it challenges economic institutions

• Identifying political & policy regimes can help generate excess investment returns

• The next regime could target environmental factors at the expense of macro ones

Economics Weekly: Ten charts showing that money is still ‘tight’
22 Oct 2019
: Adam Wolfe, Ben Blanchard, Michael Hessel, Dominic White

• Monetary conditions have not eased by enough to boost activity

• The recent pick-up in US & eurozone money supply growth looks misleading

• China still refuses to ease while other EMs have policy transmission issues

Economics Weekly: China will determine the shape of the next recession
15 Oct 2019
: Dominic White, Ben Blanchard, Adam Wolfe, Michael Hessel

• What will the next recession look like? It’s a question we’ve had frequently in recent weeks

• The West suffers from few ‘imbalances’, suggesting a global recession could be shallow

• Yet, China’s desire to control its own imbalances has been behind the global slowdown

• China’s reluctance to stimulate could mean the recovery is slow
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