Equity & Investment Strategy Research

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Equity & Investment Strategy


Equity & Investment Strategy Team

David Bowers
Managing Director & Head of Research
Ian Harnett
Managing Director & Chief Investment Strategist
Charles Cara
Head of Quantitative Strategy
Richard Mylles
Political Analyst
Aaron Thompson
Research Associate

Equity & Investment Strategy Research

Equity & Investment Strategy Products: Investment Strategy Weekly, Asset Allocation Quarterly, Politics & Themes, Surveys.

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UK Politics - No deal risk down, long term economic risk up
18 Oct 2019
: Richard Mylles

• Short-term risk of a ‘no deal’ Brexit is likely off the table

• But new deal lays ground for a distant UK-EU economic relationship

• An extension still seems likely, possibly followed by an election

ASR Investment Strategy - Cashflow Implications of Turn in Economic Cycle
17 Oct 2019
: Charles Cara, Ian Harnett, David Bowers, Aaron Thompson

• Cashflow is Strongly Related to ISM and Economic Cycle

• Record US Cashflows fully Allocated to Capex, Dividends & Buybacks

• Little Headroom if they fall.  Already Buybacks being Cut Back

• Cash Burn stocks could be forced to Prioritise Cashflow over Growth
ASR Investment Strategy - How the Rolling Bear Market Started in January 2018
10 Oct 2019
: Ian Harnett, David Bowers, Charles Cara, Aaron Thompson

• Many investors believe that 2019 has seen a bull market in Global Equities – we disagree.

• Rather, we are increasingly convinced that a rolling bear market began in January 2018.

• The strong headline gains for the headline S&P index have hidden a broad sell-off in Global, and even US, Equities.

• The eight charts in today’s note show how the start of this ‘rolling bear market’ can be confirmed by prices falling, valuations peaking and volatility rising.
ASR Investment Strategy - Around the World in 20 Days: Recession Risk Reactions
3 Oct 2019
: Ian Harnett, David Bowers, Charles Cara, Aaron Thompson

• In recent weeks we visited 4 continents, 7 countries and 15 cities

• We found that the ASR recession call resonated with many investors

• But few were positioned for macro and markets shifting into recession

In our recent trips to Europe, North America, Asia and the Antipodes we were struck by how strong the ‘bull market’ equity narrative remained, despite Global equity prices being down 10% since their January 2018 peak and even the US market showing signs of stress, with 198 S&P stocks in bear market territory since 2018.
ASR Investment Strategy - Sustained Value Rally Implies Disrupting the Disruptors
26 Sep 2019
: Charles Cara, David Bowers, Ian Harnett, Aaron Thompson

• September saw Factor rotation out of Momentum into Value

• Momentum Drawdowns can warn of Bear Markets and Regime Change

• Further Value Rally implies Buying the Disrupted & Selling Disruptors
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