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Equity Strategy Team

Charles Cara
Head of Quantitative Strategy
Philip Isherwood
Global Sector Strategist
Richard Mylles
Political Analyst
Zahra Ward-Murphy
Global Equity Strategist

Equity Strategy Research

Equity Strategy Products: Absolute Strategy Weekly, Equity Strategy Quarterly, Trade Alerts, Economics Weekly.

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ASR Investment Weekly - The inflation challenge to the Fed and the ECB
19 Oct 2017
: Raphael Olszyna-Marzys, Ben Blanchard, Michael Hessel, Dominic White, Zahra Ward-Murphy, Chris Turner, Stefano Di Domizio, David McBain
Watch: ASR Investment Weekly - The inflation challenge to the Fed and the ECB
ASR’s Asset-Allocation Probabilities: October 2017
17 Oct 2017
: David Bowers, Dorothee Deck

Our 12-month view remains very different from that of the consensus in that we expect the global business cycle to weaken and we are significantly more bearish of risk assets. Not since 2007 have we been so at odds with the Conventional Wisdom.

Our quarterly Strategic Asset Allocation report provides a summary of how ASR views the prospects for financial markets over the next 12 months. It expresses our ‘core’ calls in terms of probabilities. This also allows our views to be compared directly with the Consensus as tracked in ASR’s latest quarterly Multi-Asset Survey.

• We see scope for risk assets to underperform, as global growth decelerates, credit conditions deteriorate and pricing power remains soft
• We expect DM equities to outperform EM as stock markets pull back
• We also recommend a defensive positioning at the sector level within equities

In recent months, financial assets have been supported by ample liquidity and accommodative monetary conditions. But as central banks become more hawkish and QT starts replacing QE, risk assets could be challenged. Furthermore, if we see a China-led slowdown in global growth as we expect over the next couple of quarters and the credit cycle deteriorates in the US, the pressure on risk assets could be amplified.

Where ASR Differs the most from the Multi-Asset Survey Consensus (see red bars below)

Chart 92 : ASR’s Probabilistic Forecast minus Implied Probability from ASR’s 3Q17 Multi-Asset Survey

ASR Investment Weekly - Productivity, tech & concentration: joining the dots
12 Oct 2017
: Dominic White, Ben Blanchard, Michael Hessel, Raphael Olszyna-Marzys, Philip Isherwood, Chris Turner, Stefano Di Domizio, David McBain, Richard Mylles
Watch: ASR Investment Weekly - Productivity, tech & concentration: joining the dots
ASR Investment Weekly - Dollar bounce can run further; a focus on TWD
5 Oct 2017
: Chris Turner, Stefano Di Domizio, David McBain, Michael Hessel, Dominic White, Ben Blanchard, Charles Cara
ASR Investment Weekly - Central banks to markets: “You’re on your own”
28 Sep 2017
: Dominic White, Ben Blanchard, Michael Hessel, Stefano Di Domizio, Chris Turner, David McBain
Watch: ASR Investment Weekly - Central banks to markets: “You’re on your own”
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