Proprietary Toolkit

ASR’s Proprietary Macroeconomic Datasets

Podcasts and/or full methodology notes are available to clients, either via links below or on request. 

 

ASR Leading Indicators

Provide a lead of around 6-12 months on the business cycle in Europe, the US, and Asia. Compared with the OECD leading indicators, our metrics provide a longer lead on the cycle as well as excluding all market-based indicators.

Podcast available here for Clients only. 

 

ASR Surprise Indicators

The ASR Surprise Indicators measure the extent to which economic data have deviated from the expectations of professional forecasters on a daily basis over the previous quarter, providing a timely and high frequency indicator of economic news. In contrast to some other Surprise Indicators we do not use weights to aggregate our indicators, in order to capture a more pure measure of surprise.

Podcast available here for Clients only.

 

ASR NewsFlow Indicators

Created by querying the Factiva database of news articles, searching for stories relating to economics, earnings, revenues, labour market, inflation and monetary policy. Stories about deterioration are netted off against stories of improvement to create the NewsFlow Indicators. The six components are then aggregated into a Composite.

 

ASR Expectations Indicators

Provide a real-time indication of analysts’ economic expectations. The indicators measure a broader definition of ‘economic activity’ but work well as a real-time daily series of Consensus GDP forecasts. Our Expectations Indicators are constructed in a broadly similar way to the Surprise Indicators. Median consensus forecasts are taken for the same set of variables as are used in the surprise indicators, and these are then normalised and aggregated using equal weights.

Podcast available here for Clients only.

 

ASR Business Cycle Indicators

The ASR Business Cycle Indicators (BCIs) classify the current stage of the business cycle in real time (i.e. recovery, mid cycle, late cycle and recession). They capture a cycle lasting between three and ten years from peak to trough and are based on five underlying components: the investment to GDP ratio, unemployment rate, corporate margins, consumer willingness to buy durable goods, and growth in credit to the private sector.

 

ASR Financial Stress Indicators

Seek to capture stress in the banking sector, equity and foreign exchange markets. We use seven components to create the overall FSI banking sector beta, Ted spreads, inverted term spreads; corporate spreads, stock market returns, time-varying stock volatility and time-varying real effective exchange rate volatility. We identify episodes of ‘financial stress’ as extreme values of the composite FSI, where the index is greater than one standard deviation away from its historic trend.

 

ASR Logistics Indicators

Comprising volume data for freight activity at the busiest airports and container ports in Asia, Europe and the US, ASR’s Logistics Indicators are designed to provide a timely read on global trade growth. Our Air Freight Indicators, which are more sensitive to changes in demand, also provide a crosscheck on a number of cyclical indicators such as the performance of Cyclical vs Defensive Equities, Commodity prices and EPS growth.

Podcast available here for Clients only.