ASR's Quarterly Multi-Asset Investor Survey
Fieldwork dates: 29 Aug – 11th Sept 2019
No. of participants: 206, representing $4.1trillion of assets under management
• The Macro Environment:
For the first time in the history of the survey, the probabilitity of a global recession within the coming year has exceeded 50%
There has been a significant collapse in inflation expectations
The probability of US 10-year yields being higher a year from now is 50%
• Other US Interest Rates:
Our panel remains surprisingly ambivalent about whether US inflationlinked bonds (TIPS) will deliver higher returns than Conventionals
• US Corporate Credit & EM Debt:
We are surprised that investors are not more pessimistic about US corporate credit given the macro and corporate earnings backdrop
• Global Equities:
Investors are losing confidence in equities. Almost a third of the panel are looking for lower earnings and lower multiples
• Risk Appetite:
Investors remain risk averse
Please click here for a link to the full Multi Asset Survey report
What is the survey about?
Every quarter, ASR surveys Chief Investment Officers, Asset Allocators, and Multi-Asset Specialists from around the world. The ASR investor survey is different from other investor surveys in seven key respects:
- We wish to help investors better understand the probability of specific market outcomes within a specific time period. What is the likelihood of a certain financial event occurring over the next 12 months? Respondents tick one of five options (very likely / somewhat likely / no strong opinion / somewhat unlikely / very unlikely). By attributing a notional probability to each option, we can estimate an overall probability.
- Our survey focuses on investors who are responsible for having an investment outlook across a range of asset classes; other surveys tend to focus more on equity managers.
- The survey is short: we only ask twenty questions on calls that we believe are central to how CIOs and multi-asset specialists perceive the outlook for financial markets.
- The survey is confidential. All the fieldwork is managed by a third party, Extel-WeConvene, who ensures that the individual responses remain anonymous.
- Many surveys ask fund managers for their positioning and how they plan to change their exposure. Increasingly, investors view this as confidential information. We are not interested in investors’ positioning; we are interested in how they view different market outcomes.
- The survey will allow us to compare fund managers’ probabilities with those implicit in the market. It should also allow us to identify ‘high conviction” calls (i.e. the highest probability events) as well as multi-asset outcomes where investors have the weakest conviction. We may also be able to flag polarising events, i.e. events where the majority of respondents have strong, opposing views and where few respondents are neutral.
For more information or to participate in the survey, please contact us.