ASR's Quarterly Multi-Asset Investor Survey
Every quarter, ASR surveys Chief Investment Officers, Asset Allocators, and Multi-Asset Specialists from around the world. The ASR investor survey is different from other investor surveys in seven key respects:
- We wish to help investors better understand the probability of specific market outcomes within a specific time period. What is the likelihood of a certain financial event occurring over the next 12 months? Respondents tick one of five options (very likely / somewhat likely / no strong opinion / somewhat unlikely / very unlikely). By attributing a notional probability to each option, we can estimate an overall probability.
- Our survey focuses on investors who are responsible for having an investment outlook across a range of asset classes; other surveys tend to focus more on equity managers.
- The survey is short: we only ask twenty questions on calls that we believe are central to how CIOs and multi-asset specialists perceive the outlook for financial markets.
- The survey is confidential. All the fieldwork is managed by a third party, Extel-WeConvene, who ensures that the individual responses remain anonymous.
- Many surveys ask fund managers for their positioning and how they plan to change their exposure. Increasingly, investors view this as confidential information. We are not interested in investors’ positioning; we are interested in how they view different market outcomes.
- The survey will allow us to compare fund managers’ probabilities with those implicit in the market. It should also allow us to identify ‘high conviction” calls (i.e. the highest probability events) as well as multi-asset outcomes where investors have the weakest conviction. We may also be able to flag polarising events, i.e. events where the majority of respondents have strong, opposing views and where few respondents are neutral.
- We can take the results of the survey and run them through ASR’s proprietary Market Scenario Analyser (MSA). This allows us to select the three highest conviction events; to see how often such a combination has occurred over the past 20 years; and to explore how other asset classes have moved when those three factors have ‘fired’ – assuming, of course, correlations remain stable. We thus have a quantitative tool to take these top-level convictions through to other asset classes, including stocks and sectors.
For more information or to participate in the survey, please contact us.