Multi-Asset Research

A top-down tactical approach to trade ideas across assets and time horizons, drawing from proprietary sentiment technical indicators.

Contact Us for a trial.

Multi-Asset Strategy


Multi-Asset Strategy Team

Chris Turner
Head of Multi-Asset Strategy
Stefano Di Domizio
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
David McBain
Head of Technical Strategy
Zahra Ward-Murphy

Multi-Asset Strategy Research

Multi-Asset Strategy Products: Multi-Asset Strategy Monthly, Multi-Asset Strategy Weekly, Absolute Essentials, Trade Alerts.

Page 1: Next  

Technicals Essentials: 12 key charts for 2020
16 Dec 2019
: David McBain

In the final edition of Essentials for 2019, we look at 12 key charts for 2020. These charts look beneath the equity market surface, where elements of the sentiment story are becoming stretched, and also highlight key technical levels in UK assets and a couple of potential break-out stories emerging in FX and commodities.

This week’s key Sentiment and Positioning Take-aways:

• US equities optimism stretched versus bonds (p2)
• EUR/GBP pessimism and GBP/USD optimism both at stretched levels (p16-17)
• Soybean Oil optimism stretched; sentiment tailwind for Cotton breakout (p20)
• Special Feature: Multi-asset positioning heading into year-end (p21-22)
Multi-Asset Strategy Weekly - 2020 fixed-income ideas & themes
11 Dec 2019
: Stefano Di Domizio, Chris Turner, Zahra Ward-Murphy, David McBain

We outline our fixed-income & interest rate best investing ideas for 2020, featuring duration risk, yield curve, inflation break-evens, bond spreads and more.
Technicals’ Essentials: Key angles at work in multi-asset
9 Dec 2019
: David McBain

A number of angles are at work in multi-asset coming into this week. Speculators’ positioning points to a mixed stance on risk assets. Within equity markets, small-caps have moved onto a firmer technical footing versus large-caps globally, while US factors are becoming relatively stretched (with notable implications for equities versus bonds).

This week’s key Sentiment and Positioning Take-aways:

• Big technical tests for European and Japan small vs large-cap rallies (p7-8)

• Global sector sentiment becomes polarised (p9 and SBI summaries)

• EUR/GBP pessimism stretched; GBP/USD optimism near-stretched (p13/15)

Technicals’ Essentials: Seven key multi-asset charts heading into year-end
2 Dec 2019
: David McBain

Heading into December a number of technical angles are poised at key levels. The technical profile of EM equities is much less constructive than Developed, while the primary trend in EM FX is likely to remain bearish. On this front, EM FX volatility is worth watching, given its relationship with EM equities. FX developments have yet to confirm a fully ‘risk-on’ environment – watch USD/CNY heading into 2020.

This week’s key Sentiment and Positioning Take-aways:

• MSCI World Index ($) optimism at levels last seen in January 2018 (chart here)

• Extended sentiment on Defensive sectors and Diversified Financials (p9)

• FX sentiment poles apart on EUR/GBP and USD/BRL (p15)

ASR Multi-Asset Weekly : EM (LC) bonds: 2020 view in 12 charts
27 Nov 2019
: Chris Turner, Stefano Di Domizio, David McBain, Zahra Ward-Murphy

•   Emerging Market Local Currency bonds are likely to be handicapped in 2020 by a mix of currency weakness and higher policy rates in some cases

•   Deterioration in SOE credit ratings has yet to impact sovereign ratings but it may only be a matter of time. Mexico is a particular pressure point

•   FX risk - especially LatAm - plays a huge role in total EM LC performance. If our economists’ bearish global growth outlook plays out, EM LC bonds are likely to resume their longer-run underperformance versus EM USD bonds in 2020

•   If we are wrong and global growth picks up, EM LC bonds are likely to trace similar patterns to LatAm equities but produce worse returns

Page 1: Next  

Click here to read our research disclaimer.

Research Disclaimer

This research report is issued by Absolute Strategy Research Ltd, which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (“FCA”). Absolute Strategy Research Services Inc. is registered as an investment adviser with the US SEC, and is responsible for all communications and dealings with, and only with, US persons. The report is intended only for investors who are Eligible Counterparties or Professional Clients, as defined by MIFID and the FCA, and may not be distributed to Retail Clients.

Absolute Strategy Research Ltd does not solicit any action based upon this report, which is not to be construed as an invitation to buy or sell any security.

This report is not intended to provide personal investment advice and it does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any particular person who may read this report.

This research report provides general information only. The information contained was obtained from sources that we believe to be reliable but we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the original publication date appearing on this material only and the information, including the opinions contained herein, are subject to change without notice.

This research report may not be redistributed, retransmitted or disclosed in whole or in part, without the express written permission of Absolute Strategy Research Ltd.

© Absolute Strategy Research Ltd 2016. All rights reserved.

Absolute Strategy Research Ltd. 1-2 Royal Exchange Buildings, London, EC3V 3LF. Phone: +44 (0) 20 7073 0730 Fax: +44 (0) 20 7073 0732.

Absolute Strategy Research Ltd is registered in England and Wales. Company number 5727405. Registered Office: Salisbury House, Station Road, Cambridge CB1 2LA.