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Multi-Asset Strategy

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Multi-Asset Strategy Team

Chris Turner
Head of Multi-Asset Strategy
Stefano Di Domizio
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
David McBain
Head of Technical Strategy
Zahra Ward-Murphy
Strategist

Multi-Asset Strategy Research

Multi-Asset Strategy Products: Multi-Asset Strategy Monthly, Multi-Asset Strategy Weekly, Absolute Essentials, Trade Alerts.

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Technicals Essentials Update: 12 key sentiment charts in Multi-Asset
27 Feb 2020
: David McBain

In light of current market volatility, we felt it would be worthwhile producing an update of the weekly Technicals Essentials report. In this we highlight 12 key sentiment charts in multi-asset, which are at the centre of current market moves.

• Elements of risk aversion sentiment story stretched (p1, p4-5)

• VIX hits Sentiment Barometer Indicator (SBI) reversal levels – supportive for S&P500 (p2)

• US high yield/investment grade, TIPS and Bond vol extended (p2-3)

If you are not already on the weekly Technicals Essentials distribution list please feel free to contact us and we can add you going forward.
Multi-Asset Strategy Weekly - COVID-19: UST discounting ISM fall to 45
26 Feb 2020
: Stefano Di Domizio

On our estimates, the virus has so far shaved as much as 60bps off 10-year UST yield levels, implying a steep fall in US and global economic activity. We consider fixed-income investing implications.

1.0.0.20
Technicals Essentials: Six key charts for FX, Equities and Gold
24 Feb 2020
: David McBain

In this week’s Essentials we look at the sentiment and technical outlook for overbought US Dollar and Gold. We also highlight the notable implications of EUR/JPY for eurozone versus Japanese equities.

SENTIMENT WATCH:

FX: DXY, EUR/USD, USD/JPY and AUD/USD sentiment becomes stretched (p13-15)

Bonds: US TIPS yield hits oversold SBI territory (p10)

Commodities: Gold and Lumber optimism hits stretched levels (p17/19)

Multi-Asset Strategy Weekly - EM currency opportunities
19 Feb 2020
: Chris Turner

• A stronger US dollar in 2020 has not changed some core elements of EM FX relative performance from 2019. The weaker currencies still share some mix of low real yields, fundamental imbalances and heavy exposure to global trade.

• The Mexican peso and Indonesian rupiah are again among the strongest currencies, helped by relatively high real yields. We re-introduce a pro-MXN ‘relative value’ recommendation.

• Recommending to take profit on long RUB/ZAR and switch to RUB/CZK. The koruna looks vulnerable to global supply chain disruption.

Technicals Essentials: Six angles in Risk, FX, Commodities and Equities
17 Feb 2020
: David McBain

In this week’s slightly shorter edition of Essentials we highlight: the polarised risk-appetite picture painted by our sentiment indicators; stretched pessimism on euro TW as a big support level neared; and risks of a sentiment headwind for Lumber and US Homebuilding.

SENTIMENT WATCH:

Equities: EMU small-caps still fighting headwind versus large-caps (p6)

FX: US Dollar Index, EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, EUR/CHF and SGD/TWD become extended (p10/12)

Commodities: Lumber optimism hits stretched levels (p15)

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