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Multi-Asset Strategy Team

Chris Turner
Head of Multi-Asset Strategy
Stefano Di Domizio
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
David McBain
Head of Technical Strategy
Zahra Ward-Murphy
Strategist

Multi-Asset Strategy Research

Multi-Asset Strategy Products: Multi-Asset Strategy Monthly, Multi-Asset Strategy Weekly, Absolute Essentials, Trade Alerts.

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Technicals Essentials: 12 key charts for 2020
16 Dec 2019
: David McBain

In the final edition of Essentials for 2019, we look at 12 key charts for 2020. These charts look beneath the equity market surface, where elements of the sentiment story are becoming stretched, and also highlight key technical levels in UK assets and a couple of potential break-out stories emerging in FX and commodities.

This week’s key Sentiment and Positioning Take-aways:

• US equities optimism stretched versus bonds (p2)
• EUR/GBP pessimism and GBP/USD optimism both at stretched levels (p16-17)
• Soybean Oil optimism stretched; sentiment tailwind for Cotton breakout (p20)
• Special Feature: Multi-asset positioning heading into year-end (p21-22)
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Multi-Asset Strategy Weekly - 2020 fixed-income ideas & themes
11 Dec 2019
: Stefano Di Domizio, Chris Turner, Zahra Ward-Murphy, David McBain

We outline our fixed-income & interest rate best investing ideas for 2020, featuring duration risk, yield curve, inflation break-evens, bond spreads and more.


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Technicals’ Essentials: Key angles at work in multi-asset
9 Dec 2019
: David McBain

A number of angles are at work in multi-asset coming into this week. Speculators’ positioning points to a mixed stance on risk assets. Within equity markets, small-caps have moved onto a firmer technical footing versus large-caps globally, while US factors are becoming relatively stretched (with notable implications for equities versus bonds).

This week’s key Sentiment and Positioning Take-aways:

• Big technical tests for European and Japan small vs large-cap rallies (p7-8)

• Global sector sentiment becomes polarised (p9 and SBI summaries)

• EUR/GBP pessimism stretched; GBP/USD optimism near-stretched (p13/15)

Technicals’ Essentials: Seven key multi-asset charts heading into year-end
2 Dec 2019
: David McBain

Heading into December a number of technical angles are poised at key levels. The technical profile of EM equities is much less constructive than Developed, while the primary trend in EM FX is likely to remain bearish. On this front, EM FX volatility is worth watching, given its relationship with EM equities. FX developments have yet to confirm a fully ‘risk-on’ environment – watch USD/CNY heading into 2020.

This week’s key Sentiment and Positioning Take-aways:

• MSCI World Index ($) optimism at levels last seen in January 2018 (chart here)

• Extended sentiment on Defensive sectors and Diversified Financials (p9)

• FX sentiment poles apart on EUR/GBP and USD/BRL (p15)

ASR Multi-Asset Weekly : EM (LC) bonds: 2020 view in 12 charts
27 Nov 2019
: Chris Turner, Stefano Di Domizio, David McBain, Zahra Ward-Murphy

•   Emerging Market Local Currency bonds are likely to be handicapped in 2020 by a mix of currency weakness and higher policy rates in some cases

•   Deterioration in SOE credit ratings has yet to impact sovereign ratings but it may only be a matter of time. Mexico is a particular pressure point

•   FX risk - especially LatAm - plays a huge role in total EM LC performance. If our economists’ bearish global growth outlook plays out, EM LC bonds are likely to resume their longer-run underperformance versus EM USD bonds in 2020

•   If we are wrong and global growth picks up, EM LC bonds are likely to trace similar patterns to LatAm equities but produce worse returns

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