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Multi-Asset Strategy


Multi-Asset Strategy Team

Chris Turner
Head of Multi-Asset Strategy
Stefano Di Domizio
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
David McBain
Head of Technical Strategy
Zahra Ward-Murphy

Multi-Asset Strategy Research

Multi-Asset Strategy Products: Multi-Asset Strategy Monthly, Multi-Asset Strategy Weekly, Absolute Essentials, Trade Alerts.

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Technicals Essentials: Risk-on reaches reversal levels
11 Nov 2019
: David McBain

In this week’s Essentials we highlight that ‘risk-on’ is becoming stretched on several fronts. Equity optimism has become stretched in absolute terms and versus bonds, with the EuroSTOXX 50 at interesting contrarian levels versus Bunds in the eurozone. In FX, we highlight an investment idea among risk-sensitive cross-rates.

This week’s key Sentiment and Positioning Take-aways:

• EuroSTOXX 50 optimism stretched versus Bunds (p2)

• VIX hits oversold SBI levels; speculators’ net shorts at 10Y extremes (p4)

• US Momentum relative setback leaves SBI nearing reversal territory (p6)

Multi-Asset Strategy Weekly - Fed hawkish cuts do not fit a bull market
6 Nov 2019
: Stefano Di Domizio, Chris Turner, David McBain, Zahra Ward-Murphy
We argue a US recession and too-little-too-late Fed easing would still prove a toxic combination for risk assets. In US Treasuries, we argue the yield curve bull-flattening pressure is likely to resume
Technicals Essentials: Key angles in Equities, Credit and EM FX
4 Nov 2019
: David McBain

In this week’s Essentials we highlight that falling volatility has reached contrarian reversal zones in the case of both US equities and EM FX. A rise in VIX would be consistent with a pick-up in US investment grade spreads, which are testing key support. We also flag up an interesting investment idea in EM FX.

This week’s key Sentiment and Positioning Take-aways:

          1. VIX SBI has hit SBI reversal zone – points to vol pick-up over 2-3 months (p4)

          2. Sentiment near recent lows as US investment grade spreads hit support (p1)

          3. Soybean Oil and Lumber face sentiment headwind as key levels hit (p18)

Multi-Asset Strategy Weekly - US / eurozone macro idea
30 Oct 2019
: Stefano Di Domizio, Chris Turner, David McBain, Zahra Ward-Murphy
Macro, policy and carry factors all suggest US/euro bond yield converging positions are looking attractive here.
Sentiment, Positioning and Risk Essentials - Seven key charts in multi-asset
28 Oct 2019
: David McBain

EQUITIES: Big tests for MSCI ACWI ex-US and World with EM Exposure; watch VIX (P1-2, 4)

BONDS: JPM GBI-EM Global Diversified Index reaches key resistance (P2)

FX:EUR/PLN targets 4.24; NOK/SEK support possible around 1.05 (P3)

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