ASR's Quarterly Asset Allocation Survey
Q1 2021 Survey Now Closed
Fieldwork dates: 25th Feb - 11th March 2021.
Key takeaways from the Q1 survey:
• Investors Anticipate Higher Core Inflation and Higher Yields
• Survey Continues to be Dominated by Hopes of Global Reflation:
Investors continue to anticipate ‘full-on’ Global Reflation over
the coming 12 months, including further improvements in
business confidence and corporate earnings. Survey is bullish
on Value, Cyclicals, Equities, Credit … and bearish Bonds.
• Biggest ‘Delta’ is Around Higher Inflation and Bond Yields:
The Survey saw sharp rises in the probabilities for higher core
inflation, higher bond yields, and higher commodities, with
‘linkers’ outperforming ‘conventionals’. Interestingly, this shift
has thus far not begun to undermine Equity valuations.
• A Greater Diversity of Views Returns to the Panel:
Some diversity of opinion has returned. Key differences between the groups centre on inflation and bond yields, and on whether inflation increases enough to impact credit.
No. of participants: 196, representing USD $7 trillion of assets under management.
Image shows: ASR Asset Allocation Survey: Composite Optimism Indicator
What is the survey about?
ASR’s Multi-Asset Survey is a survey of probabilities.
Every quarter we ask over 200 CIOs, asset allocators, economists, and multi-asset strategists about the outlook for financial markets for the next 12 months. However, instead of asking them about how they are positioned (as many surveys do), we are trying to map how they see the financial world in terms of probabilities, and then compare those probabilities with how often those events have actually occurred over the past decade
The ASR investor survey is different from other investor surveys:
We wish to help investors better understand the probability of specific market outcomes within a specific time period. What is the likelihood of a certain financial event occurring over the next 12 months? Respondents tick one of five options (very likely / somewhat likely / no strong opinion / somewhat unlikely / very unlikely). By attributing a notional probability to each option, we can estimate an overall probability.
Our survey focuses on investors who are responsible for having an investment outlook across a range of asset classes; other surveys tend to focus more on equity managers.
The survey is short: we ask around thirty simple questions on calls that we believe are central to how CIOs and multi-asset specialists perceive the outlook for financial markets.
Many surveys ask fund managers for their positioning and how they plan to change their exposure. Increasingly, investors view this as confidential information. We are not interested in investors’ positioning; we are interested in how they view different market outcomes.
The survey will allow us to compare fund managers’ probabilities with those implicit in the market. It should also allow us to identify ‘high conviction” calls (i.e. the highest probability events) as well as multi-asset outcomes where investors have the weakest conviction. We may also be able to flag polarising events, i.e. events where the majority of respondents have strong, opposing views and where few respondents are neutral.
Would you like to become a survey participant?
We are keen to hear from institutional investors who would like to participate in our surveys. All survey participants receive the full report for every survey completed.
Please fill in the form below to register your interest and a member of the team will be in touch.