ASRs Asset Allocation Team discussed their Q3 Outlook and recent move to a more risk on stance. The team have upgraded Equites to overweight as earnings remain resilient and neither the labour market or financial markets are demonstrating any signs of stress.

Ian Harnett, revisited some of the issues flagged in our recent Controversies, Conviction and Context report.
 

Controversy has been a feature of the Trump administration thus far - we believe the US administration is set on delivering a broad regime change and investors must cut through the ‘noise’ and explore how to be positioned for this.

Our key conviction is that the weaponization of trade will lead to the weaponization of capital, and with many investors over-exposed to US private assets.

The context for the discussion remains how the 1920s and 1930s tariff measures led to earnings shocks as large as seen in the GFC.

ASR's German Political Consultant, Heinz Schulte and ASR's Head of Research, Nick Nelson discussed the new political and financial chapter for Germany. Why Merz deserves credit for forming his ‘working coalition' and why investors should watch his interactions with Trump and NATO closely, along with his proposals for an EDM.

ASR’s Head of Climate Macro Strategy, Michael Penn, and Emerging Markets Economist, Adam Wolfe, discussed how the current trade diversion could accelerate a clean energy transition in emerging markets.

Economics Q3 Update: How Trump’s policies are likely to reshape the global economy with the ASR Economics Team.

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Dominic and his team will discuss why, despite resilient markets, there will be long lasting structural changes as a result of Trump’s policies. They will ultimately lead to slower growth, higher inflation and lower corporate profits. Investors’ attitudes towards US assets appear to have permanently altered, with the US dollar likely to be a casualty. 

ASR's Q2 Asset Allocation Survey Results with ASR's Co-founder, David Bowers and Head of Quant Strategy, Charles Cara. This is the first survey since Liberation Day and the immense market volatility and policy uncertainty that has followed.

Professor Jeffry Frieden in conversation with David Bowers explored the following questions: 
 
Are there any historical parallels with the challenges to globalisation that we see today?
How does today compare to the period of de-globalisation that occurred in the first half of 20th century?
How do we understand the goals of the Administration’s trade policy?
What does the Administration’s trade policy portend for the future of the international trading system?
What are the financial implications of the Administration’s policies, both generally and with respect to monetary and financial policy?

Zahra Ward-Murphy shared why she believes the gold rally still has further to run despite hitting new highs and returning 25% YTD. ASR is Overweight Gold within its Asset Allocation portfolio.