Research Insights

Updated weekly, a rolling feed of research insights and charts you really ought to see.

Capex-heavy stocks showing signs of life

23rd JUL. 2021

While secular stagnation has weighed on capex-heavy stocks, Charles Cara argues that this is showing signs of reversal. Capex-heavy stocks could reverse their underperformance of capex-light stocks seen over the last decade.

Capex-heavy stocks showing signs of life

ASR Q2 Asset Allocation Survey: Positive but a change of tone

17th JUN. 2021

Another positive Asset Allocation Survey, with Asset Allocators remaining ‘risk-on’, but the second derivative for growth and inflation has rolled over, with Inflation a key fault line among our panellists.

ASR Q2 Asset Allocation Survey: Positive but a change of tone

Funky Correlations and Missing Links from David Bowers

7th JUN. 2021

The report highlights some ‘macro to market’ relationships that inform our Asset Allocation process.
This month: The great Stock-Bond correlation conundrum - We illustrate key cross-asset cross-checks.

Funky Correlations and Missing Links from David Bowers

Rising Margins benefit Value and Quality

20th MAY. 2021

While macro indicators point to continued strength in corporate margins, there are risks from increased supply and corporate tax reforms. We would favor Value and Quality from here.

Rising Margins benefit Value and Quality

The Year of Living Dangerously

6th MAY. 2021

This quarter’s Asset Allocation document reiterates our preference for Risk assets over Defensives. While we are doubling down on our preference for Cyclicals, we trim our underweight Core Fixed Income.

The Year of Living Dangerously

Q2 Equity Strategy: Focus on Inflation

23rd APR. 2021

Defensives May Appear Attractive but Cyclicals Thrive with Inflation

Q2 Equity Strategy: Focus on Inflation

Multi Asset Strategy

21st APR. 2021

Cash-rich Japanese investors’ top bond picks

Multi Asset Strategy

Multi Asset Strategy

14th APR. 2021

High Yield: how much fuel left in the tank? Returns outlook is still positive – but focus on BB and avoid CCC

Multi Asset Strategy

Economics Weekly

13th APR. 2021

Signs of a shift out of Secular Stagnation - The Roaring Twenties won’t be repeated, but that’s a good thing

Economics Weekly

Why IPOs may boom in this new Policy Regime

18th MAR. 2021

An IPO boom could signal a golden era for Global Banks and corporate finance as companies look to reverse the trend of de-equitisation and float / re-list / issue equity and pay down debt.

Why IPOs may boom in this new Policy Regime

A Trillion dollars here or there

10th MAR. 2021

. . . Now that the fiscal outlook is clearer, consumer behavior is key.
The fiscal outlook has become clearer with the imminent passage of the American Rescue Plan, China’s recent budget announcement and the suspension of the EU fiscal rules for another year. We find ourselves upgrading our global growth forecasts to 6 1/2%.

A Trillion dollars here or there

ASR’s Ian Harnett writes the Markets Insight column in the Financial Times.

18th FEB. 2021

Absolute Strategy Research’s Co-Founder Ian Harnett discusses why expansive fiscal and monetary policies may see a 1980s-style Japanese melt-up and meltdown, in his Financial Times ‘Market Insights’ article.

ASR’s Ian Harnett writes the Markets Insight column in the Financial Times.