Economics Weekly

France could come under the spotlight in the next few months
France hasn’t grabbed our attention over the past year, but it could soon come under the spotlight. Three key sovereign rating reviews are on the horizon, and polls suggest Macron’s party could face embarrassment at the European Parliament elections.

Fiscal concerns pose a political and economic challenge
We don’t think France will grow at an above-trend pace this year or next. Fiscal issues play into that, with France needing to deliver a persistent structural adjustment over the next few years. Macron is facing mounting political pressure to rein in spending.

Sluggish growth likely to reinforce core-periphery divergence
France isn’t facing the same kind of competitive challenge that Germany is. But, without much of a benefit from Next-Generation EU, we don’t think they’ll be able to match the kind of numbers we’re seeing in the periphery either.

ASR clients can read this report in full: HERE
If you are not already a client and are interested in a free trial of our award-winning research, please see: HERE