Economics Weekly

Is the industrial cycle perking up?
The global industrial cycle has remained sluggish over the last few years, despite the resilience of consumer demand. The over-expansion of inventory and capacity coming out of the pandemic has weighed on output. But are there signs of this changing?

A turn in inventories & consumer demand
The destocking cycle has run its course, with firms reporting they are more comfortable with current inventory levels. And as consumption patterns have stabilised, lower inflation has boosted consumers’ real incomes and the demand for durable goods.

Looking for signs of a capex upturn
Capex has remained a drag on the industrial cycle. Our Capex Trackers for the G4 economies suggest growth has merely bottomed out. But conditions for an upturn seem to be in place. A pick-up might add to concerns about renewed cyclical strength.

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