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Economics Weekly

Whither the US consumer?
There have been conflicting signals about the strength of the US consumer recently. The macro data have remained strong, but some consumer-facing companies have started to sound more cautious. How can we reconcile these conflicting trends?

Uneven effects of post-pandemic normalization

This note looks at the US household sector in detail for some answers. It appears that the post-pandemic normalisation of the labour market, inflation, and interest rates are hitting lower income households far harder than those further up the income ladder.

Higher-end consumer still looks well-supported
Higher-income households look in much better shape and account for the majority of consumption, helping explain the overall resilience in spending. Without some shock to balance sheets, it looks doubtful that consumption will slow much below trend this year.

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Economics Weekly
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