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Equity Strategy

ASR’s five-factor framework comprised of macro, earnings, valuation, liquidity and sentiment is used to assess global equity markets and provide recommendations by region and sector.

 

Within our Investment Strategy product, we also conduct Quantitative Strategy, which includes factor and style analysis, tax analysis and proprietary dividend models.

What We Offer

Research

 
Equity Strategy Insight

Our Insight notes deliver a clear and concise analysis of current events impacting the equity market. We provide context for key events and data, aligning them with our investment perspectives and market calls.

 

Equity Strategy Weekly
 

In-depth analysis of equity markets, covering market views, regional calls, and sector strategies. Our coverage includes a Global Sector Scorecard ranking 23 sectors and explores
longer-term structural investment themes.

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Quarterly Global Equity Strategy 
 

Overview of ASR Regional and Sector Recommendations We continuously review and update our Regions, Sectors, and Structural Investment Themes. Additionally, we provide detailed Stock Screens to highlight key investment ideas.
 

 

Equity Factor Chartbook
 

Each month, we provide a review of significant developments in key equity factors, accompanied by variety of charts that illustrate both the fundamental and technical characteristics of these factors.
 

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Stock Market Analysis

Data

 

Equity Market Characteristics 
 

A comprehensive dataset covering equity valuations, market concentration metrics - including Pairwise Correlations and PCA Absorption Ratios - and a broad range of risk appetite and market risk indicators.

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Global House Price Index
 

A proprietary global house price index that captures housing market trends in near real time, providing a more responsive alternative to traditional aggregate measures.

 

Equity Factors
 

Comprehensive data on the performance, underlying fundamentals, and constituent composition of our equity factor suite.

 Earnings Season Summary 
 

Providing a clear view of earnings season through indicators that aggregate revenue and earnings results, helping identify trends and shifts in corporate performance.

Services

 
Absolute Connect Webinars
Monthly webinars focusing on Equity Strategy, covering the key themes shaping global equity markets, including earnings, valuations, market leadership, and the investment implications of macroeconomic developments.

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Conferences and Forums

Regularly presentation at client conferences and industry events, providing independent perspectives on global equity markets, regional and sector opportunities, and key investment themes.
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Bespoke Projects and Investment Solutions

We deliver bespoke equity market analysis and portfolio construction insights, tailored to clients' specific investment needs and objectives.

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Video Conference Meeting

Research Coverage

Equity Strategy Update 

Overweight Basic Resources

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  • Cyclicals due catch up given market level and risk appetite.

  • Upgrades: Basic Resources, Construction, Financial Services, Beverages.

  • Downgrades: Insurance, Healthcare, Media

We update our Global, US and Eurozone Sector Scorecards 

Equity Factor Chartbook

Tremor hits US momentum factor 

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  • Hedges to end of AI capex boom; Japan Growth exposed to equity rally.

  • ACE Model predicts 8% Q1 earnings surprise

  • Q2 Earnings to determine if quant tremor becomes a quant quake.

Tremor hits US momentum factor 

Equity Strategy Weekly

Capex to broaden out from AI

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  • Outside of AI, capex has been in decline

  • Three drivers for structurally higher capex

  • Who might be the winners from higher capex?

We see reasons for a structural pickup in capex 

Equity Strategy: Insight

From Token-Maxxing to Token Managing

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  • GPU compute prices have softened since start June and average token prices have fallen by a fifth

  • Companies using AI are now promoting how they are minimising their AI spend by using smaller, cheaper AI models 

  • AI Hyperscalers are still likely to publish strong Q2 earnings but watch for signs of cost consciousness about AI capex spend

From Token-Maxxing to Token Managing

Our Team

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Nick Nelson
Head of Equity Strategy 

  • LinkedIn

Nick spent 17 years at UBS Investment Bank, most recently as Managing Director, Head of European Equity Strategy. He ranked 2nd in the individual category in European Equity Strategy for Institutional Investor in 2019 and he and the team have been ranked highly over the years in Institutional Investor and prior to that, Extel surveys. From 2012-2014 Nick was UBS Head of Global Equity Strategy and managed the Global Emerging Market Strategy team. He was also a member of the Equities panel for UBS Wealth Management’s CIO Asset Allocation. Nick began his career in 1994 with SG Warburg (latterly UBS) as a member of the Institutional Investor number 1 ranked Global Asset Allocation team. After a period at Credit Suisse First Boston, initially as a member of the top-ranked Global Equity Strategy team and then as the Head of European Equity Strategy, Nick re-joined UBS in 2005 and was promoted to Managing Director in 2007. He regularly contributes to media, such as Financial Times Op Ed, CNBC, Bloomberg TV, Wall Street Journal, and cross-asset media Roundtables.

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Charles Cara
Head of Quant Strategy 

  • LinkedIn

Charles Cara has been at Absolute Strategy Research since 2008 where he takes a stock analyst’s approach to equity factors by looking at their fundamental characteristics to assess their risks and rewards. He has built a range of Equity focused market indicators and regularly writes on company fundamentals including results seasons. Prior to ASR, Charles was a Senior Director, European Strategist at Merrill Lynch covering European Equities. He spent 10 years worked in the research department at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein first as a stock analyst before managing the firm’s stock fundamentals database. During this period his research focused on accounting issues and the aggregate fundamentals of the market. Prior to joining DrKW, Charles was part of Morgan Stanley’s top ranked Paper & Packaging research team. He has contributed to CNBC and presented to the London Quant Group on Equity Risk Premia.

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