Economics: 5 important insights from our indicators

Messages from our proprietary data

Our proprietary indicators and datasets help us interpret and anticipate business cycle developments. We highlight five in this note that appear to be sending important messages to investors.

Deteriorating activity … but a sign of hope?

Activity data have deteriorated. Notably, the US has led this trend rather than Europe or Asia. This slowdown has already pulled global growth below its trend rate. But our global leading indicator is providing a more hopeful signal, starting to inflect upwards.

Bleak monetary data, while inflation surprises fade

Unfortunately, there are reasons to doubt the signal from our lead indicator – not least the monetary data, which continue to deteriorate sharply. Finally, inflation surprises are also rapidly fading, suggesting the investment environment could be starting to change.