Economics: Observations from our logistics data

Global trade volumes have continued their decline

Global trade volumes have fallen by 5.4% since September – a pace of decline only seen on three other occasions over the past four decades. We might have been early with our broader recession call, but trade certainly is in recession.

Some tentative signs of short-term relief emerging

The good news is that our commodity price model has picked up a touch, S&P Global’s PMIs have improved, and air freight volumes have risen in recent months. We have our doubts about the persistence of that short-term relief though.

We still think the risks are skewed to the downside

The kind of credit tightening that we’ve highlighted repeatedly this year suggests that reaching the WTO’s 1.7% forecast for 2023 will be a stretch. A decline in global trade in value terms would almost certainly point to an outright global earnings recession.