Economics: Russia-Ukraine: evaluating exposures

Reacting to the conflict

Many aspects of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and its economic fallout are unforecastable. This puts a premium on being able to respond to events as they happen. In this environment a framework for making sense of these events can help.

 

Channels of exposure

We’ve constructed a dashboard to help evaluate different countries’ direct and indirect exposures to the conflict, covering real economy, financial, and commodity price channels. This can be used in conjunction with indicators of the intensity of the shock.

 

Comparing the relative impact

Combining these into overall demand and supply exposures gives the pattern in our key chart, below. Unsurprisingly, the EU is most exposed; the US, UK, and China sit in the middle; Australia and Canada could benefit, due to positive terms-of-trade effects.