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“Quantitative Destruction” leads in The Times

David Bowers and Ian Harnett have been talking to clients for some months about the risks, not of QT , but QD, “quantitative destruction” .

Today’s leader in the Times reiterates our concerns…


17th MAR. 2023

FT Unhedged talks financial crises and Fed rates with ASR’s Ian Harnett

Rob Armstrong notes “the types of financial wreckage that have forced rate pivots before have been extremely bloody….” citing the ASR chart which plots major crises next to the fed funds rate.


14th MAR. 2023

ASR on China’s balance of payments: Adam Wolfe in The Economist

China’s official statistics are often suspected of flattering the economy. But ASR’s Adam Wolfe considers “the balance-of-payments figures may actually understate the size of the country’s pandemic-era export boom”. 


7th MAR. 2023

David Bowers in The Times, a “Hard landing for the global economy may be good news for markets”

Simon Nixon was in discussion with David regarding implications of the US Senior Loan Officer Survey, showing demand for credit has collapsed and that lending standards have tightened. David notes, that has “typically foreshadowed a rise in credit risks within a year…”


2nd MAR. 2023

FT Unhedged – Ethan Wu & Robert Armstrong highlight ASR’s long-term ERP

Noting ASR’s “detailed work on the ERP”, calculating nine different ERP methodologies and taking the median output… Wu and Armstrong would agree with ASR that “a decade-low ERP seems a mighty modest premium for a very precarious investing environment


24th JAN. 2023

Bloomberg / ASR: China’s $7 Trillion ‘Hidden Debt’ Is Back in Focus

With Beijing pivoting on key policies, a cyclical recovery appears to be underway. But structural issues – such as the heavy debt load of local governments — haven’t gone away.


12th JAN. 2023

ASR in the Times: Quantitative Destruction is a huge new challenge for central banks

Simon Nixon in the Times notes that “There are no shortages of candidates for future sources of financial instability”.

What we are witnessing is what (ASR) have dubbed “quantitative destruction.”


10th NOV. 2022

ASR in the FT “Big Read” : How long can Japan’s central bank defy market forces?

The FT’s Leo Lewis cites David Bowers, who notes that “Strong wage growth is seen as the ultimate ‘amulet’ against Japan slipping back into disinflation…” 


4th NOV. 2022

Bloomberg: ASR bond/ equity yield ratios going back to 1910 – implications

John Authers cites an ASR chart (with numbers as of Oct. 31 - before the central bank meetings) suggesting that “it’s scarcely tenable to hold stocks rather than bonds…"


4th NOV. 2022

FT Unhedged on “Picking Risks: What to own while waiting for inflation to fall”

Robert Armstrong notes in his column that “banks, for example, look as cheap as anything in the market right now. But consider a rather chilling chart from Ian Harnett of ASR …"


10th OCT. 2022

Simon Nixon / ASR in the Times, on global financial risks

Simon Nixon notes that these risks should “hardly come as a surprise. As Ian Harnett and David Bowers of ASR have long been warning, every US interest rate tightening cycle in the past 50 years has ended in a financial crisis.”  


6th OCT. 2022

ASR’s Adam Wolfe in IFR News : Awful year for EM opens door to default

In conversation with Refinitiv’s Robert Hogg, ASR’s EM and China Economist Adam Wolfe commented, "I think increasingly defaulting is going to look like the least worst option for several EMs”… 


30th SEPT. 2022

Nick Nelson joins ASR

Absolute Strategy Research is pleased to announce the appointment of Nick Nelson as Head of Global Equity Strategy.


20th SEPT. 2022

ASR / BBG: Chinese Corporate Dollar Debt Issuance Falls at Record Pace

BBG’s  Yujing Liu - in discussion with ASR’s EM Economist Adam Wolfe – notes that Chinese companies are curbing their dollar borrowings at a record pace this year...


15th SEPT. 2022

ASR voted Europe’s Leading Independent Research Provider 2022 in the II Survey

A very big ‘Thank You’ to all our clients around the world who voted to recognise the quality of our research and the exceptional service our team provides.  


8th SEP. 2022

ASR / BBG: China’s Mounting Risks Set Stage for PBOC to Rein In Stimulus

ASR’s Adam Wolfe - in discussion with Bloomberg – anticipating a trade off from the PBOC : Adam commented that the PBOC “should be preventing leveraged positions in the bond market from building up…”


12th AUG. 2022

Adam Wolfe on Bloomberg: Something Just Doesn’t Add Up in Chinese Trade Data

Bloomberg’s Ye Xie  and ASR’s Adam Wolfe discussed the unusual discrepancy that has showed up in two sets of trade data in China…


9th AUG. 2022

Robert Armstrong, FT Unhedged, highlights ASR on Bear Markets

“ Bear markets don’t end until the Fed has cut rates” – Ian Harnett 

"Lots of people think that the capitulation that matters most is Federal Reserve capitulation…


26th JUL. 2022

Bloomberg’s Ye Xie references ASR’s Adam Wolfe on China Stimulus

In “Xi’s $220 Billion Stimulus Is Less Than Meets Eye”, Adam notes that pulling forward next year’s budget means China faces a fiscal cliff in 2023. “This is more can-kicking than real stimulus”


7th JUL. 2022

Bloomberg’s John Authers on the ASR Asset Allocation Survey

ASR’s latest survey of international money managers shows that “TINA,” the idea that There Is No Alternative to stocks, is more or less at an end.


5th JUL. 2022

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