ASR in FT Unhedged: Can we make US stocks look cheap?
The FT’s Ethan Wu notes: “Standard p/e’s are slightly above historical averages, the Shiller cyclically adjusted p/e ratio is very high and the equity risk premium is near a decade low. If there is a valuation metric that makes the market look cheap, we haven’t seen it.”
Querying ASR’s Ian Harnett: “Might cheapness lurk below at the sector level?” Ian responded, "Mostly, no…"
23rd MAY 2023
ASR in the FT: What if the relative decline of US stocks isn’t temporary?
In conversation with the FT’s Jennifer Hughes, Ian Harnett noted that “US equities currently make up just under half of global stock market capitalisation, up from about a third in 2010. That’s lower than during boom periods such as the dotcom bubble — but that is hardly much comfort…”
5th MAY 2023
ASR chief economist Dominic White in FT Unhedged: Where’s the credit crunch?
The FT’s Ethan Wu, with ASR chief economist Dominic White, consider whether First Republic’s problems are a sign of a wider credit crunch. Dominic commented that, “as savers flock to money markets, deposit competition is increasing, which should pressure bank profitability and further tighten lending standards…”
27th APR. 2023
ASRs ‘debt deleveraging’ theme in Bloomberg Opinion … and the risks from Non-Bank Financials
In discussion with Bloomberg’s John Authers, ASR’s David Bowers argues that “a decline in the money supply does matter . . . (he) points to total debt in the US as a proportion of GDP. For the first time since . . . the debts incurred to finance WW II, debt has come down, and sharply” . . .
21st APR. 2023
ASR’s Adam Wolfe on Bloomberg: China Central Bank Hints It Will Dial Back Pandemic Stimulus
The PBOC signaled it may start scaling back some of the stimulus measures implemented during the pandemic as the economy begins recovering and credit demand picks up.
Adam Wolfe noted that, “Back in the fourth quarter of 2022, structural tools supported a third of the net increase in total lending….”
21st APR. 2023
FT INSIGHT: The financial turmoil is not over - by ASR’s Ian Harnett
Ian considers implications of recent bank failures: “if 2022 was about the repricing of capital, 2023 is … about the reduction in the quantity of capital, as "quantitative destruction" puts alternative assets and non-bank financial institutions to the test" . . .
4th APR. 2023
ASR’s Asset Allocation Survey in Bloomberg’s Much Ado about Banking, by John Authers
John notes in his column that the ASR survey of asset allocators for the second quarter (based on interviews that took place during the worst of the banking upheaval) “found the deepest pessimism since the survey started in 2015 . . .
3rd APR. 2023
David Bowers in The Times, a “Hard landing for the global economy may be good news for markets”
Simon Nixon was in discussion with David regarding implications of the US Senior Loan Officer Survey, showing demand for credit has collapsed and that lending standards have tightened. David notes, that has “typically foreshadowed a rise in credit risks within a year…”
2nd MAR. 2023
FT Unhedged – Ethan Wu & Robert Armstrong highlight ASR’s long-term ERP
Noting ASR’s “detailed work on the ERP”, calculating nine different ERP methodologies and taking the median output… Wu and Armstrong would agree with ASR that “a decade-low ERP seems a mighty modest premium for a very precarious investing environment”
24th JAN. 2023