The ASR/WSJ Composite Newsflow Indicator
We monitor the positive and negative news stories around six key macro variables using the Dow Jones news database, Factiva
These variables include: (1) the economy; (2) Corporate earnings; (3) corporate revenues; (4) the labour market; (5) inflation; (6) monetary policy.
They combine to form our flagship Composite Newsflow Indicator
Long-standing, robust relationships with alternative series like the PMIs
Weekly and Monthly series for all datasets
37 years of potential history
Coverage: Global; US; China; Eurozone; Japan; UK; Australia and Emerging Markets
Rather than rely on two or three macro releases the Newsflow indicators produce a signal by aggregating a much broader range of inputs from the many media outlets contained within Factiva (over 10k different outlets)
Stories tend to be skewed towards the things editors find interesting – which often means that they capture an element of macro surprise
The different indices have strong, long-standing relationships with other key series like the purchasing manager surveys, analyst revisions and the 12-month change in equity/bond relative returns (see chart above).
On this page:
ASR / WSJ Newsflow for June 2021:
Global Newsflow Reaches New Record
The ASR/WSJ Global Composite Newsflow Indicator notched a new record of 69.2 in June, the highest in its 30-year history
Values over 55 are associated with global stock returns beating those of bonds on a 12-month basis
The strong June reading reflects the sharp rise in the “Monetary Policy” NewsFlow component (reflecting increased media chatter about tightening monetary conditions) in the wake of the last FOMC and the unexpected changes to the dot plot projections for Fed Funds
The rise in the Monetary-Policy NewsFlow offset some rollover in the other components
Four of the six – the Economic, Corporate Revenues, Labour Market and Inflation components – peaked in March or April, while the Corporate Earnings component, which peaked in May, fell by 2 standard deviations in June
The rollover in our US Economics NewsFlow (Clients can see HERE) suggests that consensus US GDP growth for the next 12 months could soon fall back to 4%
ASR/WSJ Newsflow Component Indices
Introducing the high frequency ASR/WSJ Global Composite Newsflow Indicator
Updated on Tuesdays
Using the same methodology as our tried and tested monthly ASR/WSJ Global Newsflow indices, this new weekly series brings the Newsflow into the realm of high frequency data
A high frequency alternative to correlated datasets like the ubiquitous purchasing manager surveys
The NewsFlow indicators are created by using proprietary search strings to interrogate the Dow Jones Factiva database
‘Positive’ and ‘negative’ macroeconomic news stories are collected in separate searches and then the difference is calculated - the ‘net’ news flow.
The indices are then seasonally adjusted.
The searches are in English, so the series are dominated by stories from and about the Anglosphere, but they have a proven track record of capturing global trends well.
For a more detailed methodology click HERE.
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