Economics

Central banks across Europe continue to tighten aggressively

Central banks across Europe continue to tighten monetary policy aggressively, despite rising recession risks. By doing so much in such a short period of time, policymakers have opened the door to unexpected outcomes.

A scorecard for private sector interest rate vulnerabilities

A lot has been said about sovereign risk in Europe, but less about whether the private sector can cope with higher rates. As a starting point, we’ve created a scorecard to get a sense of where the vulnerabilities lie. 

Interest rate shock could overwhelm despite improving fundamentals

Sweden, Denmark, the UK, and France all look most vulnerable to a given rise in rates. But even in countries with lower vulnerability scores, the scale of the interest rate shock could overwhelm if policymakers deliver the tightening that markets expect.