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ASR and Why Opec Matters in FT Unhedged

Beth McCann

1st JUL. 2021

Ian Harnett and an ASR chart feature in Robert Armstrong’s column ahead of today’s Opec meeting: ASR analyses oil price increases and US growth slowdowns.

Armstrong notes that on ASR’s model, oil takes a while to make a difference, and makes a difference for a while. 

The ASR chart shows an interesting relationship. (NB: the oil price scale is inverted). 

Ian Harnett observes: “I have always found that oil prices need to be elevated/rising for some time to then drive activity rates down further out . . . This suggests that any negative oil price effect is more likely to kick-in towards the end of 2022 on this simple model . . . however, as you can see the leads and lags look to vary over time [and] this did not work at all in 2016, for example, or 1996.


To read the full column, see HERE (FT subscription may be required)

Clients can access ASR’s latest weekly oil chart pack HERE

To request a copy as part of a trial, please reply HERE

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