Ian Harnett in Antipodes ‘Good value podcast’: Can the US sidestep recession?
17th JUL. 2023
On the Antipodes podcast, Ian Harnett addresses the West’s bleak recession prospects while emphasising a possible game-changing remedy. Hosted by Alison Savas, they explore the economic outlook in the West, China’s long-term growth, geopolitics, and the potential risks and opportunities that lie ahead.
When discussing this likelihood of a recession, Ian expressed “I still very much believe that we are still looking at a world that is going into recession… This is the largest, fastest, broadest tightening of monetary policy that you've had since 1980… But also, we are now seeing the quantitative tightening coming through as central banks limit the access to credit”.
On the liquidity side, Alison points out that “tighter lending standards has seen private credit growth slow”, in which Ian shares his concerns about credit, highlighting that “the failure of Silicon Valley Bank didn’t make the recession more likely. But because it's going to keep lending officers more cautious for longer, it probably means that the downward pressure on credit isn't going to reverse until the middle of next year”.
During their discussion about the potential risks and opportunities, Ian warns that “insurance companies do have a lot of risk in them”, and his investment recommendations is that “investors should focus on longer term sovereign bond yields, bond related equities, and pharmaceuticals”.
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