Featured in Handelsblatt: Six Charts Show How Donald Trump Is Hurting His Own Economy

Slower Economic Growth The official estimate for gross domestic product (GDP) for the first quarter won’t be released until the end of April, since the first three months of the year aren’t over yet. But a recent estimate from the regional Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta has already attracted attention: According to data published last Thursday, the U.S. economy would shrink by 2.4% in the first quarter.

The so-called GDPNow indicator from the Atlanta Fed, which continuously incorporates the latest economic data, is known for its volatility. However, analysts still regard it as a reliable gauge of economic sentiment.

In mid-February, the projection had still been for 2.3% growth.

Ebrahim Rahbari, macro strategist at the analytics firm Absolute Strategy Research, cautions that it is still relatively early in the current quarter to make a reliable estimate. Nonetheless, the shift in direction is noteworthy.

“Growth in the U.S. is slowing down,” Rahbari also observes. At the beginning of the year, growth expectations were still between 2.5 and 3 percent. “But I’m only expecting one percent in 2025,” says the macro strategist, pointing again to the uncertainty caused by trade policy.

“Companies are holding back on investments and other strategic decisions. Consumers are spending less,” he explains.

If the uncertainties were to be resolved, these trends could reverse quickly. However, a new round of tariffs is expected in early April—tariffs that could also directly impact the European Union.

Original Article in German

Article in full: Sechs Charts zeigen, wie Donald Trump die eigene Wirtschaft quält