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Challenging the Consensus
Explore our research insights highlighted in reputable news outlets, along with complimentary independent global macro research from our extensive archive. We are committed to sharing our findings with the investment community to ensure our audience stays informed.
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Ian Harnett in Bloomberg: How to Invest $10,000 Right Now
Look to Japan The idea: Over the longer term, we expect international equities to gain ground and the US dollar to weaken. The currency...
Absolute Strategy
Apr 243 min read
Featured in Longbow Arrows: Showin' Some Love
Unintended Consequences History says that if rates are cut due to weaker activity, equities tend to struggle. ASR has this great chart...
Absolute Strategy
Apr 231 min read
Nick Nelson in conversation with CNBC- Squawk Box Europe
Defence, Tech & Global Shifts ASR's Head of Research, Nick Nelson, joined CNBC’s Karen Tso and Steve Sedgwick to discuss the Europe and...
Absolute Strategy
Apr 171 min read
Featured in CNBC: Japanese yen and Swiss franc top hedges against Trump tariffs, according to analysts
Key Points “The Japanese yen will be a good — and probably the best — candidate to hide from trade tensions and a U.S. recession,” said...
Ebrahim Rahbari
Apr 72 min read
Featured in Handelsblatt: Panic Selling Expected – Bitcoin Drops Below $80,000
The recent decline in Bitcoin's price below $80,000 has raised concerns about potential panic selling in the cryptocurrency market. This...
Ebrahim Rahbari
Apr 71 min read
Featured in Financial Times: How ‘weaponised trade’ could lead to ‘weaponised capital’
As international structures that promoted free trade are unwound, there is a rising risk of a return to capital controls Donald Trump...
Ian Harnett
Apr 43 min read
Featured in Bloomberg Opinion: a
If trade flows are going to fall, as is more or less inevitable if these tariffs are imposed for any period of time, the risk is that...
Absolute Strategy
Apr 41 min read
Featured in the Australian Financial Review: A trillion-dollar sovereign wealth fund could be Trump’s grandest plan
There are plenty of big assets that could be sold to get the White House’s hopes in motion. Investors are already being told not to...
Ian Harnett
Mar 305 min read
Featured in FT Unhedged: Poor consumer sentiment is still just talk
And it may never turn into action According to Joanna Hsu, who oversees the Michigan survey, absolute levels of consumer confidence are...
Absolute Strategy
Mar 272 min read
Featured in Longbow Arrows: Secondary Tariffs
What's Going On? ASR put out a good piece on the labor market. The hard data looks good (firms are reporting labor shortages). It’s the...
Absolute Strategy
Mar 251 min read
Featured in Bloomberg Opinion: Remaking the world through exiting US stocks
Things Fall Apart This is a disconnecting world. Events of the last 24 hours have made ever clearer a trend that has been taking shape...
Absolute Strategy
Mar 192 min read
Featured in the Economist: Can anything get China’s shoppers to spend?
An economic recovery depends on it. Yet a new action plan may not do the job Installing more lifts in multi-storey buildings, extending...
Adam Wolfe
Mar 192 min read
Featured in Bloomberg Opinion: Selling the family silver, American-style
Corrections and Sovereign Wealth Funds Scott Bessent says he isn’t worried. In the last week, market overconfidence has been replaced by...
Absolute Strategy
Mar 173 min read
Featured in Bloomberg: China’s Bond Market Is Changing Its Tune on Japanification
Central Bank Win A major factor in the bond rout has been the PBOC’s decision to hold fire on rate cuts since last September, defying...
Absolute Strategy
Mar 132 min read
Featured in Wealth of Nations: How Great Powers Fail plus other existential questions
Thoughts on how Trump's retrenchment benefits China, when bullying allies works and when it doesn't, Europe's incomplete Zeitenwende,...
Absolute Strategy
Mar 103 min read
Featured in Handelsblatt: Six Charts Show How Donald Trump Is Hurting His Own Economy
Slower Economic Growth The official estimate for gross domestic product (GDP) for the first quarter won’t be released until the end of...
Ebrahim Rahbari
Mar 101 min read
Ebrahim Rahbari in Conversation with CNBC
ASR’s Head of Rates Strategy, Ebrahim Rahbari, joined CNBC’s Sam Vadas to discuss the complexities of valuing the yuan and its broader...
Absolute Strategy
Feb 211 min read
Nick Nelson in conversation with CNBC
ASR's Head of Research, Nick Nelson joined CNBC’s Julianna Tatelbaum to discuss Europe’s growing need for defence spending, as...
Absolute Strategy
Feb 191 min read
Featured in WSJ Barron's: China Wants Its Economy to Grow 5%. Consumers Aren’t Buying It
China faces a number of conundrums, but none is greater than this: President Xi Jinping wants domestic consumption to drive the economy....
Absolute Strategy
Feb 192 min read
Featured in Bloomberg Opinion: Bessent Safe Than Sorry
Scott Bessent has a fascinating task ahead of him. The new US Treasury secretary must shepherd a package of policies that spurs growth...
Absolute Strategy
Feb 72 min read
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