Featured in Nordsip: Five minutes to Midnight – and We Have not Even Started the Energy Transition
- Absolute Strategy
- Jul 16
- 1 min read
Updated: Aug 27
Have We Even Begun?
Global energy demand continues to increase, driven by rising living standards – a logical correlation. Yes, energy efficiency is improving. In wealthier economies, energy use per capita and per unit of GDP has been decreasing. That should be a reason for optimism: we can decouple prosperity from energy consumption. But here is the bad news: the vast majority of global energy demand is still met by carbon-based fuels. In other words, we have not even started the transition – yet.
One helpful way to understand the mechanics of energy use and emissions is the Kaya Identity, which breaks down CO₂ emissions into four key factors: population, income per capita, energy intensity of income, and carbon intensity of energy. It is a simplified, yet powerful model, which explains the drivers behind the continued increase in global emissions as highlighted by this chart from Absolute Strategy Research.
Graphics courtesy of Absolute Strategy Research. Reproduced with permission. Originally published on 11 July 2025 in “Climate Macro Strategy – Energy Transition: Myths & Realities”
The comparison to "five minutes to midnight" is striking, emphasizing how little time we have. Professional publisher perspectives can drive meaningful action. I appreciate the data-backed approach, showing we’re far behind. Professional publisher content like this pushes for accountability.