Featured in Longbow Arrows: Secondary Tariffs

What's Going On?

ASR put out a good piece on the labor market. The hard data looks good (firms are reporting labor shortages). It’s the soft part that is….well, soft. Unemployment rates in the US, UK, EZ and Japan are solid. Folks are worried about layoffs, though. Maybe co’s will just pay people less, offer fewer hours, etc. While analysts are playing wait-and-see with the data, what’s clear is that the temperature has changed. No longer are employees singing “I know you want me”.

The soft and hard data has diverged

Source: ASR Ltd. / LSEG Datastream

US Households are increasingly fearful of a spike in layoffs

Source: ASR Ltd. / Macrobond

Reference to the Article: Secondary Tariffs